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Location: NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction College Park, MD (And as a Webinar)
March 3-6, 2014
Theme: Tropical Cyclone Research: Assessing the Past -- Planning for the Future
Opening Session
Setting the Stage for the Forum
Mr. Samuel P. Williamson, Federal Coordinator for Meteorology
Senior Leader Panel
Moderator: Dr. Ronald Ferek, Program Officer, Marine Meteorology Program, Office of Naval Research
Panelists:
The 2013 Tropical Cyclone Season in Review
Session Leader: Jim McFadden (NOAA/AOC)
Transitioning Research to Operations
Session Leaders: Christopher Landsea (NOAA/NHC) and Shirley Murillo (NOAA/AOML)
- (S2-01): An Update on the Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) Christopher
Landsea (NOAA/NHC) and Shirley Murillo (NOAA/AOML)
- (S2-02): Improvement to the Satellite-based 37 GHz Ring Rapid Intensification Index Haiyan Jiang, Margie Kieper, Yongxian Pei (Florida Intl Univ), and John Kaplan (NOAA/AOML)
- (S2-03): Predicting Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Error Kieran T. Bhatia David S. Nolan (Univ. of Miami/RSMAS), and Andrea B. Schumacher (CSU/CIRA)
- (S2-04): Upgrades to the Operational Monte Carlo Wind Speed Probability Program: A Year 1 Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Update Andrea Schumacher (CSU/CIRA) and Mark DeMaria (NOAA/NHC)
- (S2-05): Optimized Multi-Sensor Application in the ARCHER Automated TC Center-Fixing Algorithm Anthony Wimmers and Christopher S. Velden (Univ. of Wisc./CIMSS)
- (S2-06): Upgrades to the GFDL/GFDN Operational Hurricane Model for 2014 Morris A. Bender, Matthew Morin, and Timothy Marchok (NOAA/GFDL); Isaac Ginis, Biju
Thomas, and Richard Yablonsky (Univ. of Rhode Island); and Robert Tuleya (Old Dominion Univ)
- (S2-07): Improving HWRF and GFDL/GFDN Hurricane Models by Advancing the Air-Sea Interaction Components Isaac Ginis, Richard Yablonsky, and Biju Thomas (University of Rhode Island); Morris Bender (NOAA/GDFL); and Vijay Tallapragada (NOAA/NCEP)
- (S2-08): Verifying Historical Forecasts and Developing a Statistical Model from NWP Output Daniel Halperin, Robert Hart, Henry Fuelberg, and Joshua Cossuth (Florida State Univ.)
- (S2-09): AdcircViz: A Visualization and Analysis Application for Distributed ADCIRC-based Coastal Storm Surge, Inundation, and Wave Modeling Brian Blanton, Renaissance Computing Institute, and Rick Luettich (Inst. of MarineSciences, Univ. of N. Carolina at Chapel Hill)
- (S2-10): Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) Activities in Support of Transition of Research to the Operational Hurricane WRF Model Ligia Bernardet (NOAA/GSD, CIRES/CU, DTC), Vijay Tallapragada (NOAA/EMC), Timothy Brown, (NOAA/GSD, CIRES/CU, DTC), Mrinal Biswas (NCAR), Samuel Trahan (NOAA/EMC/ IMSG), Donald Stark and Laurie Carson (NCAR)
- (S2-11):Testing and Evaluation of the GSI-Hybrid Data Assimilation and its Applications for HWRF at Developmental Testbed Center Hui Shao and Chunhua Zhou (NCAR); Ligia Bernardet and Isidora Jankov (NOAA/ESRL); Mrinal K. Biswas (NCAR); Brian Etherton (NOAA/ESRL); Mingjing Tong (NOAA/EMC); Jeff Whitaker (NOAA/ESRL); and John Derber (NOAA/EMC)
- (S2-12): The Development of COAMPS-TC, Transition to Navy Operations, and Future Plans James D. Doyle (NRL/Monterey), R. Hodur (SAIC), J. Moskaitis, S. Chen, E. Hendricks, Y. Jin, A. Reinecke, and S. Wang (NRL/Monterey)
- (S2-13): Recent Tropical Cyclone Modeling Transitions to Operations at Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FOUO so it will not be posted.) Charles E. Skupniewicz, Carey Dickerman, and Raymond C. Lee (Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center)
Session 3a: Tropical Cyclone Observations and Observation Applications, Part I
Session Leader: Scott Braun(NASA/GSFC)
- (S3a-01): Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3): Results from the 2013 Deployment Scott A. Braun and Paul A. Newman (NASA/GSFC)
- (S3a-02): HIWRAP Global Hawk Status and Future Plans Gerald Heymsfield (NASA/GSFC), S.Guimond (NASA/ORAU), M. Mclinden and L. Li (NASA/GSFC), J. Carswell (Remote Sensing Solutions, and L. Tian (Morgan St. Univ)
- (S3a-03): HIWRAP Observations from the Hurricane and Severe Sentinel (HS3) Campaign: Comparing Retrieval Techniques Anthony C. Didlake, Jr., Gerald M. Heymsfield, Lian Tian, and Stephen Guimond (NASA/GSFC)
- (S3a-04):Ensemble Kalman Filter Assimilation of HIWRAP Observations of Hurricane Karl (2010) from the Unmanned Global Hawk Aircraft Jason A. Sippel, Fuqing Zhang, Yonghui Weng, Lin Tian, Gerald M. Heymsfield, and Scott A. Braun (NASA/GSFC)
- (S3a-05): High Definition Sounding System (HDSS) for Atmospheric Profiling Peter Black (NRL/Monterey/SAIC); Lee Harrison (Univ of Albany/SUNY); Mark Beaubien and William Jeffries (Yankee
Environmental Systems, Inc); Robert Bluth, Haflidi Jonsson, and Andrew Penny (Naval Postgraduate School); and Robert W. Smith (NASA/JSC)
- (S3a-06): Extreme Wave Height Reports from NDBC Buoys during Hurricane Sandy Richard H. Bouchard (NOAA/NDBC), Robert E. Jensen (USACE), David W. Wang (NRL/Stennis), George Z. Forristall (Forristall Ocean Eng, Inc), Oceana P. Francis (Univ of Hawaii Manoa), and Rodney E. Riley(NOAA/NDBC)
- (S3a-07):Progress on Upper Ocean Measurement
Strategies during Hurricane Passage: AXCP and AXCTD Profiling Lynn K. Shay, Benjamin Jaimes, and Jodi K. Brewster (RSMAS/ Univ of Miami); Eric W. Uhlhorn (NOAA/HRD);and George R. Halliwell (NOAA/AOML/POD)
- (S3a-08):The AXBT Demonstration Project: Implementation, Impact, Collaboration, and Outlook Elizabeth R. Sanabia (USNA) and Peter G. Black (NRL/Monterey/SAIC)
- (S3a-09): Upper-Ocean Thermal Structure Variability during Hurricanes Ernesto and Isaac (2012) Ellen K. Deckinga, William J. Schulz, Elizabeth R. Sanabia, and Bradford S. Barrett (USNA)
- : (S3a-10):Impact of AXBT Ocean Observations on the COAMPS Prediction of Tropical CyclonesSue Chen (NRL/Monterey), James Cummings (NRL/Stennis), Jerome Schmidt (NRL/Monterey), Elizabeth Sanabia and Bradford Barrett (USNA), and Peter Black (NRL/Monterey/SAIC)
Session 3b: Tropical Cyclone Observations and Observation Applications, Part II
Session Leader: Robbie Hood (NOAA/OAR)
- (S3b-01): Observing Upper Ocean Structure Changes in Hurricane Conditions using Profiling Glider Technology Walt H. McCall (NOAA/NDBC), Hyun-Sook Kim, (NOAA/NCEP), and L. Brzuzy, (Shell Upstream Americas)
- (S3b-02): Impact of Simple Parameterizations of Coastal Upper Ocean Heat Content on Modeled Hurricane Irene (2011) Intensity Greg Seroka, Travis Miles, Yi Xu, Oscar Schofield, and Josh Kohut (Rutgers University)
- (S3b-03): The 2013 Satellite Proving Ground at the National Hurricane Center Mark DeMaria, Jack Beven, Michael Brennan, and Hugh Cobb (NOAA/NHC); John Knaff (NOAA/NESDIS), Andrea Schumacher (CIRA/CSU), Christopher Velden (CIMSS/UW), Jason Dunion (NOAA/HRD), Gary Jedlovec (NASA/MSFC), Kevin Fuell (Univ of Alabama, Huntsville); and MichaelFolmer (UM/CICS)
- (S3b-04): Exploiting SNPP VIIRS Day Night Band (DNB) for Tropical Cyclone Monitoring Jeff Hawkins, Jeremy Solbrig, Mindy Surratt, and Kim Richardson (NRL/Monterey), Steve Miller (CIRA), Charles Sampson (NRL/Monterey), John Kent (SAIC), and Tom Lee (NRL/Monterey)
- (S3b-05): Satellite-Derived Oceanic Heat Content Estimates in the North Pacific Ocean Basin For Typhoon Intensity Forecasts: ST Haiyan Claire McCaskill, Lynn K. Shay, and J. K. Brewster (RSMAS/ Univ of Miami)
- (S3b-06):Forecasting Flossie: A Look at Using the Most Progressive Satellite TechnologyTom Evans (NOAA/CPHC)
- (S3b-07): Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology (SHOUT) to Mitigate the Risk of Satellite Observing Gaps Robbie Hood (NOAA/OAR), Michael Black (NOAA/A OML), Gary Wick (NOAA/ESRL), Philip Kenul (TriVector Services Inc.), and John Coffey (Cherokee Nation Technologies LLC)
Session 4: Tropical Cyclone Numerical Modeling Initiatives
Session Leaders: Jessie Carman (NOAA/OAR) and Vijay Tallpraganda (NCEP/EMC)
- (S4-01): Evaluation of Experimental Models for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting in Support of the NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) Paul A. Kucera, Barbara G. Brown, Louisa Nance, and Christopher L. Williams (NCAR/Research Applications Laboratory)
- (S4-02): Significant Improvements in Hurricane Intensity Forecasts from NCEP/EMC Operational High-Resolution HWRF Modeling System Vijay Tallapragada, (NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC)
- (S4-03): The Physics Suite Upgrades of the Operational HWRF Model for 2014 ImplementationYoung Kwon (NOAA/EMC/IMSA), Vijay Tallapragada, and Qingfu Liu (NOAA/EMC), Zhan Zhang, Samuel Trahan, Weiguo Wang, and Chanh Kieu (NOAA/EMC/IMSG)
- (S4-04): Real-Time HWRF Forecasts for the Joint Typhoon Warning Center Sam Trahan and Chanh Kieu (NOAA/EMC/ IMSG), Vijay Tallapragada (NOAA/EMC), Brian Strahl (JTWC), Bob Gall (NOAA/HFIP/CIMAS), Lee Cohen (NOAA/ESRL/GSD/CIRES), and Thiago Quirino (NOAA/AOML)
- (S4-05): Experimental Real-Time Forecasts for the 2012-2013 Northwestern Pacific Season with the NCEP Operational HWRF Chanh Kieu, Vijay Tallapragada, Samuel Trahan, Zhan Zhang, Qingfu Liu, Young Kwon, Weiguo Wang, and Mingjing Tong (NOAA/NCEP/EMC)
- (S4-06): Application of Coupled HWRF-HYCOM System for the Northwestern Pacific Typhoon Prediction Hyun-Sook Kim, Sam Trahan, Chanh Kieu and Vijay Tallapragada (NOAA/NCEP/EMC/Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch)
- (S4-07): HWRF-based Ensemble Prediction System using Perturbations from GEFS and Stochastic
Convective Trigger Function Zhan Zhang (NOAA/NCEP/EMC/IMSG), Vijay Tallapragada (NOAA/NCEP/EMC), Chanh Kieu, Samuel Trahan, and Weiguo Wang (NOAA/NCEP /EMC/IMSG)
- (S4-08): Coastal Storm Modeling System (CSTORM-MS) Chris Massey (USACE Engineer Research and Development Center/Coastal Hydraulics Laboratory)
- (S4-09):Verification of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Prediction in a Suite of Operational Global Numerical Weather Prediction Models Mike Fiorino (NOAA/Earth System Research Lab)
- (S4-10):New Challenges and Expectations of Dynamical Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclones Jan-Huey Chen and Shian-Jiann Lin (NOAA/GFDL)
Session 5: Research Priorities of the Operational Centers
Session Leaders: James Franklin (NOAA/NWS/NHC) and Jason Dunion (NOAA/AOML/HRD)
- (S5-01): Multi Lead-time Statistical Rapid Intensification Guidance John Kaplan (NOAA/HRD), Christopher M. Rozoff (CIMSS/UW-Madison), Charles R. Sampson (NRL), James P. Kossin (NOAA/NCDC), Christopher S. Velden (CIMSS/UW-Madison), and Mark DeMaria (NOAA/NESDIS/NHC)
- (S5-02): Real-Time Verification of a Passive Microwave Imagery-Based Statistical Model of Tropical Cyclone Rapid IntensificationChristopher M. Rozoff and Christopher Velden (CIMSS/UW-Madison), John Kaplan (NOAA/HRD), Anthony J. Wimmers (CIMSS/UW-Madison), and James P. Kossin (CIMSS/UW-Madison/NOAA/NCDC)
- (S5-03):Tropical Cyclone Genesis Ensemble Forecasts Jiayi Peng (NOAA/NCEP/EMC/IMSG), Yuejian Zhu (NOAA/NCEP/EMC), and Richard Wobus (NOAA/NCEP/EMC/IMSG)
- (S5-04): Analysis Tools for Online Evaluation of the Operational Hurricane Forecasts Using Satellite Data Svetla M. Hristova-Veleva (NASA/JPL), Mark Boothe (NPS), S. Gopalakrishnan (NOAA/HRD), Ziad Haddad, Brian Knosp, Bjorn Lambrigtsen, and Peggy Li (NASA/JPL), Michael Montgomery (NPS), Noppasin Niamsuwan (NASA/JPL), Vijay Tallapragada (NOAA/EMC), Simone Tanelli and Joseph Turk (NASA/JPL), and Tomislava Vukicevic (NOAA/HRD)
- (S5-05)Outer Vortex Wind Structure Changes during and following Tropical Cyclone Secondary Eyewall Formation in the Atlantic Robert A. Stenger and Russell L. Elsberry (Naval Postgraduate School)
- (S5-06): MDL Research for Hurricane Storm Surge Amy Fritz and Arthur Taylor (NOAA/NWS/MDL); Bobby Louansaysongkham, Huiqing Liu, Ryan Schuster, and Dongming Yang (NOAA/NWS/ MDL/Ace Info Solutions, Inc.); and Jindong Wang (NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory/Earth Resources Technology, Inc.)
- (S5-07): Rapid Evaluation of Hurricane-driven Storm Surge using Pre-computed ADCIRC Solutions Rick Luettich (Institute of Marine Sciences, Univ. of North Carolina-Chapel Hill), Brian Blanton and Jesse Bikman (Renaissance Computing Institute, Univ. of North Carolina-Chapel Hill), and Alex Taflanidis and Andrew Kennedy (Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Earth Sciences, Univ. of Notre Dame)
Session 6: Applications of Social Science to Tropical Cyclone Forecasts and Warnings
Session Leader: Bryan Norcross (The Weather Channel)
- (S6-01): Enhancing the Timeliness of Tropical Cyclone Watches and Warnings: Issuance of Watches/Warnings Prior to Genesis Daniel P. Brown, Todd Kimberlain, James Franklin, Ed Rappaport, and Rick Knabb (NOAA/NHC)
- (S6-02): Progress over the Past Five Years on a Hurricane Surge Visualization Model and Future Plans to use the Model to Assess Public Understanding of Risks due to Storm Surge B. Lee Lindner, Stephen Duke, and Janet Johnson (Physics and Astronomy Department, College of Charleston) and Frank Alsheimer and Robert Bright (NOAA/NWS/Charleston SC)
- (S6-03): Improving Local Hurricane Forecast Communication Betty Hearn Morrow (SocResearch Miami) Linda Girardi, Gina Eosco, Stephanie Fauver, Chris Ellis, and Vankita Brown
- (S6-04): Linking New Technology and User Behavior Brenda Philips (Univ. of Massachusetts, Amherst)
Hagemeyer Award Presentation
2014: Mr. John Pavone
2013: Dr. Jim McFadden
2012: Mr. Jeff Hawkins
2011: Dr. Peter G. Black
2010: Dr.Jim Goerss
2009: Dr. Mark DeMaria
2008: Mr. Robert Dumont
2007: Mr. Charles J. "Charlie" Neumann
2006: Dr. Joanne Simpson
2005: Dr. Frank D. Marks, Jr.
2004: Mr. Max Mayfield
2003: Mr. Chris Velden
2002: Prof. Russell Elsberry
Invited Presentation
(I-01):Real-Time Geospatial Sharing Between Agencies—An Update Dave Jones (StormCenter Communications)
Final Plenary Session
Session Moderator: John Murphy (NOAA/NWS)
Summary of Assessment Results—Agency Perspectives
Panelists:
WG/HWSOR Meeting Action Item Review, Edward Rappaport (NCEP/NHC), Chair, WG/HWSOR
Final Wrap-up, Mr. Samuel P. Williamson Federal Coordinator for Meteorology