ICAMS

Interagency Council for Advancing Meteorological Services

Prediction Capbility

The National ESPC’s role in improving capabilities for subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) and seasonal to decadal (S2D) prediction is to foster and coordinate:

• Support for North-American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) / subseasonal ensembles via a partnership of the willing.
• Optimized NMME / subseasonal ensembles to address the S2S prediction problem.
• Improved skill in the S2S timescale with fully coupled systems.
• Structure for interagency programmatic ventures and [prioritized investments.

The S2S / S2D prediction problem is challenging, which is why the National ESPC’s Executive Steering Group identified it as a focus area. By building on the successes of the Navy in short-range operational forecasting and collaborative efforts, National ESPC partners can leverage existing National ESPC working groups and strategies such as interoperability, while maintaining a focus on research to operations (R2O), to solve these important problems.

Building an Interannual to Decadal Prediction and Projection Capability for Decision Support

MODEL COMPONENT CAPABILITY

Multi-Model	Pertubed Initial Conditions	Stochastic Parameterizations
Many different forcast model (dynamical cores) are run Accounts for model-based bias Used for weather, S2S, and climate timescales Multi-physics ensembles use the same core but vary parameterizations Initial conditions differ due to differing initialization schemes Examples: NAEFS, NMME, SREF	Many slightly different, equally valid initial conditions are applied to one model Retains model bias Accounts for initial condition uncertainty and chaos Appropriate for weather time scales Example: GEFS	Random perturbations are included within the equations of motion, or added to the constants in physics parameterizations (stochastic physics) sampling the probability distribution of uncertainty Theoretically accounts for model uncertainty Not operational at this time

Metrics, Post-processing, and Products for Subseasonal to Seasonal

Interoperability

This information will be added soon.

Research Priorities

The National Earth System Prediction Capability Vision is to develop and implement the next generation integrated physical earth system prediction capability at weather and longer time scales, to support days-to-decadal global prediction. To fulfill this vision, the National ESPC will:

• Extend predictive capability to decades using muli-model, multi-agency ensembles
• Use ensembles to identify and quantify uncertainty and risk
• Advance computational and environmental numerical prediction science and technology
• Enhance our understanding of complex interactions of the earth environment

The National Earth System Prediction Capability Vision is to develop and implement the next generation integrated physical earth system prediction capability at weather and longer time scales, to support days-to-decadal global prediction. To fulfill this vision, the National ESPC will:

1. Research innovation
2. Development of forecast skill and technology goals and objectives
3. Evaluation and identification of [prioritized] R&D activities and performance metrics
4. Interagency collaboration

The National ESPC will improve environmental predictions and help decision makers address critical planning and policy issues by extending the national predictive capability from hours and days to seasonal, annual, and decadal time periods through improved, coupled global environmental prediction.

Outcomes and End Products

The National ESPC is an operational global, coupled, multi-model ensemble system and a research pipeline for improvements providing:

Nowcasts (minutes to hours) for tornadoes, severe weather, aviation, and wind energy support.

Short-range forecasts (hours to days) for the general public, Department of Defense operations and planning, emergency management, and commerce.

Medium-range forecasts (days to a month) for agriculture, the power industry, emergency planners, Arctic ice, and Department of Defense planning.

Predictions (intra-seasonal to inter-annual) of tropical cyclone activity, drought, flooding, heat waves, and freeze / thaw dates, for informing agriculture planning, water resource management, commerce, and Department of Defense strategic planning.

Projections (intra- and inter-decadal) of patterns driving sea level rise for coastal infrastructure development, and precipitation / snow pack pattern changes for agriculture and water management or transportation infrastructure, politically destabilizing events.